Pollster: Economy could hurt McCain in home state

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Tuesday, November 4, 2008
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Arizona’s economic problems could cost John McCain his home state, according to a polling expert and a recent ASU poll.

Nearly 75 percent of Arizona voters surveyed by the Cronkite/Eight Poll said the financial crisis has affected their families, a majority which could bring Barack Obama a victory in the state, the poll’s associate director, Tara Blanc, said.

Of the 1,019 registered Arizona voters polled, 36 percent said their families have been affected a great deal by the financial crisis and downturn in the economy, while 39 percent said they have been somewhat affected.

Those who responded that they have not been affected much by these issues made up 25 percent of the responses.

The economy was part of the reason for a statistical dead heat between the two presidential candidates, with 46 percent of respondents saying they supported McCain, compared with 44 percent for Obama, Blanc said.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

It’s natural for people to blame the party in power, and Obama is getting a boost in the polls because of the financial mess, Blanc said.

“People are blaming Republicans for the … financial crisis,” she said. “Since John McCain is the Republican candidate, he’s feeling the fallout from this, whether it’s right or not.”

The poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26.

A lot has to do with perception of how the economy is faring, she said.

“People see their investments have eroded. They’re nervous about all kinds of things,” Blanc said.

Undeclared sophomore Nate Greene said he has watched his stocks fall dramatically and is concerned about the state of the economy.

“I can’t think of anybody [the economy] couldn’t affect,” he said.

Though his lifestyle has pretty much stayed the same, Greene said he has “basically had to live like a really poor college kid.” The main economic factors affecting him, he said, are gas prices, the rising cost of living and inflation.

“I ride my bike [to ASU] now,” he said. “I don’t even like to touch my car unless I have to go somewhere pretty far.”

Greene said he is undecided about who he will vote for but is leaning toward Obama.

He said he’s not surprised the bad economy is benefiting Obama in the polls.

Blanc said while the poll offers only a snapshot of what’s happening, it does offer valuable insight into voters’ mindsets about the election.

“The electorate is so volatile that something could happen today and things would change tomorrow,” she said.

Reach the reporter at matt.culbertson@asu.edu.