Despite some businesses reporting a successful Black Friday, the holiday season — always vital to the retail sector — is likely to be slow this year, an ASU professor said.

“I have no data that compares with today’s dismal spending patterns. And I have data that spans 25 years in Arizona,” Dennis Hoffman, an ASU economist and associate dean for research at the W.P. Carey School of Business, said in an e-mail.

Spending by college students will also lessen, Hoffman said.

“This year they will find fewer part-time job opportunities as well,” he said. “There is no avoiding it. We will all [feel] the pain.”

Businesses most vulnerable to a drop in this season’s spending are those selling items likely to be bought as holiday gifts, Hoffman said.

The businesses most immune to the decreased holiday spending are discount outlets and those that sell to large-quantity buyers, he said. But even these will feel distress, he said.

“It is hard to find anyone who is not adversely affected in this downturn,” he said.

Some local business managers in the retail sector said they are optimistic about spending.

At Arizona Mills in Tempe, Black Friday drew tens of thousands of customers, and the mall’s businesses were pleased with the results, mall manager Todd Olson said.

Black Friday — so named because the day’s spending sends many businesses’ balance sheets from red to black — is crucial for retail stores, Olson said. To increase sales, Arizona Mills opened its doors at midnight Friday, when most businesses in the Valley were closed, he said.

“We got a jump on all the other shopping centers in the Valley,” he said.

Jenny Hakes, assistant store manager at Target at Baseline Road and McClintock Drive in Tempe, said the fourth quarter is larger than any other individual quarter.

“We’re most profitable this time of year,” she said of the fourth quarter, which extends through January.

Black Friday was successful for her store location, and Hakes said some of the success was due to a larger emphasis on bargains.

“The guests come in, they want to see that value right away,” she said. “Our focus has basically been … giving the guest exactly what they want when they want it.”

Additionally, concerted marketing efforts focusing on bargains are important to drawing customers, Hakes said.

Hoffman said marketing bargains and deals are key for businesses trying to adapt to the economic climate.

“Buyers will be in search of real deals this year, and sellers will have to convince them the prices have been slashed to the limit,” he said.

Arizona Mills also increased its marketing efforts to attract shoppers, with an increase in advertising and promotions like giving away a $1,000 gift card every hour during Black Friday, Olson said.

“Tenants are telling me sales are really good,” he said.

Business and journalism junior Kasandra Joyner said she noticed shorter lines when she went shopping on Black Friday.

“It was still crowded, give or take, but not how it is normally at all,” said Joyner, who has gone shopping on Black Friday since she was a child.

This year, she said lines at Best Buy were only about 15 minutes long — compared with about two hours that she has seen in previous years. The prospect of businesses not making enough money to survive this season is scary, she said.

“Everybody’s really worried about the economy,” she said. “I think people are taking that to heart, and they’re just not shopping as much.”

Reach the reporter at matt.culbertson@asu.edu.