Early on in the season, I made a friendly bet with a fellow writer about ASU’s chances in the NCAA tournament.

I thought, backed by sophomore James Harden and fairly consistent senior forward Jeff Pendergraph, that ASU’s chances were fairly decent. After all, no one was questioning its defense.

Now, I’m beginning to seriously regret that wager.

That’s because since conference play, ASU basketball has been about as consistent as the number five in a game of roulette.

OK, so maybe not that bad, but it certainly isn’t a sure bet, either.
As usual, it’s their offense.

The Sun Devils haven’t scored 80 points since their 90-60 victory over Stanford on Jan. 2 (a 10-game span). Since then, ASU is just 6-4, averaging a meager 62 points per game, including a season-tying low of just 49 points in their victory at Oregon State last Saturday.

“We try to apply good defensive principles,” ASU coach Herb Sendek said.
“Fortunately for us, we have been able to keep games close with it, because offensively, we’ve hit some speed bumps.”

These speed bumps have turned faint whispers into legitimate concerns as the Sun Devils have failed to score 60 points six times this season.

Offense, in basketball, cuts down nets, not zone defenses.

Part of the problem is that Harden can be contained. While Pendergraph has been proficient, he’s simply not enough of an inside, low-post presence to force defenses to devote themselves to a strict inside zone.

Because opposing defenses won’t stay inside, ASU must find a way to spread them out. However, this requires ASU to shoot the three, something it hasn’t been able to do most of the season.

They rank in the bottom half of the Pac-10 in 3-point shooting, and have yet to establish a dominant shooter behind the arc (sophomore Rihards Kuksiks is the only consistent shooter, going 59 for 127 behind the arc). ASU scores too much from inside the arc and too little from under the basket.

And time is running out. This home stand for the Sun Devils will literally set the course for the remainder of the season.

UCLA comes in playing its best basketball of the season, trying to be nothing short of the No. 1 seed it’s become accustomed to being.

Here’s where it gets tricky. If ASU falls to UCLA and the Wildcats down south defeat USC, then it sets up a literally must-win matchup for the Sun Devils on Saturday against the Trojans.

That’s because it would put ASU in a tie with its archrivals in the Pac-10, most likely at the fourth and fifth spots.

Considering ASU has already lost to USC, the pressure for the Sun Devils would be monumental, especially considering the Pac-10 isn’t guaranteed anything from the NCAA.

With one of its worst years in recent memory, the only sure way get into the tournament is to be in the top four of the conference standings.

Will fifth place make it in?

Probably, but it’s far from a guarantee. Especially when you consider that ASU has but one key victory (UCLA), and of the final five teams it faces after this home stand, it has only
beaten two.

This is why the Sun Devils absolutely have to at least split this home stand. The only guarantee for fifth place in the Pac-10 is to be on the bubble.

And we all remember how that turned out.

Reach the reporter at joshua.spivack@asu.edu.