In the months preceding the Russia-Georgia war last August, the Russian army conducted several large-scale military exercises just outside Georgia’s borders. Now Russia has done it again, but this time it has pointed its guns at the Baltics.

At the end of September this year, not surprisingly around the 70th anniversary of the Soviet-led invasion of Poland, Russia conducted military exercises in Kaliningrad and Belarus.

The drill, known as Zapad-09 (West-09), was based on a hypothetical scenario, according to The Economist: Ethnic Poles in Belarus and Lithuanian terrorists attack Kaliningrad while three NATO brigades, one visiting, one Latvian, and one Estonian then invade Western Russia.

This scenario is one of the most highly improbably situations one could think up. In fact, many speculate that the operation was more offensive than defensive.

And no one really knows exactly what went on during the drill. Russia made sure that its troop involvement remained less than 13,000, meaning they avoided the obligation to bring in outside observers.

Naturally, the Baltic states and Poland are none too happy about Russia’s actions. Latvian Defense Minister Imants Liegis in last week’s news program Neka personiga said the drills had political grounds.

Latvia celebrates 91 years since it first became independent in 1918 Wednesday, but was occupied by Soviet forces between 1941 and 1991.

Tension between Latvia and Russia is still very palpable.

Latvia has responded to Russia’s drills by announcing it will conduct military exercises in the summer of 2010.

One cannot help but draw a grim comparison between the drills in Georgia and now the drills in the Baltic area.

When Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008 the lack of military response from the West sent a negative signal to the Baltics.

I happened to be an intern at Latvia’s Occupation museum when this took place. The Latvian Government even called upon NATO to provide military support in the likelihood that Russia would attack.

Latvians were worried Russia would try and reclaim the Baltic states, and when NATO turned down Latvia’s request, their concerns became more valid. The main fear is the West would do nothing to stop an attack, just as they did nothing when Russia occupied Latvia at the end of WWII.

The question then arises, how should the U.S. respond? Or an even more important question is why should the United States care?

Russia is certainly trying to send a message that it is prepared to enter into a full-scale military operation against NATO if it must. This has serious implications since most troops are preoccupied with Afghanistan and would not be able to counter any Russian offensives.

Given that NATO has no contingency plans for the Baltic states; nations like Latvia certainly have reason to worry.

Moreover, as America is negotiating with Russia over issues like nuclear proliferation, how can we be sure they might not have ulterior motives?

Is it really possible to reset post-Cold War relations or are we facing a growling bear?

Reach Erik at erik.ohsiek@asu.edu.