Coach Jason Watson talks to his players during the match vs Washington State on Sunday, Oct. 19th, 2014, at Wells Fargo Arena in Tempe. The Sun Devils would rally from two sets down to beat the Cougars 3-2. (Photo by Daniel Kwon)Ten matches: that’s the window of opportunity ASU volleyball has remaining to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament.
In those 10 matches, the No. 19 Sun Devils (15-7, 5-5 Pac-12) will have the chance to prove they're one of the best teams in the Pac-12, and not a middling team who loses to unranked squads.
Coach Jason Watson consistently talks about how the rankings system does not accurately reflect the strength of the Pac-12. Seven of the conference's twelve teams are ranked in the top 25, but it is clear that almost every team can fight.
The Rating Percentage Index is a more accurate representation. This is a poll in which teams are ranked based on their wins and losses, the strength of their schedule, and the strength of their opponents’ schedules.
Every Pac-12 team is in the top 100. There are three teams in the top 10 and six in the top 17. ASU falls in at No. 31, with Colorado at 33, and Oregon St. at 35. Utah, ASU’s opponent on Friday, is No. 55.
“There’s two teams that have separated themselves from everybody else in Stanford and Washington," Watson said. "But there’s a big group of us that are within one match of each other."
ASU plays against Stanford, No. 1 in both the AVCA coaches rankings and the RPI rankings, and Washington, No. 2 in AVCA and No. 3 in RPI.
It is unlikely the Sun Devils will win either of those games, especially given that their first matches with those teams did not go well. ASU put up a fight against Stanford, starting with more energy than the Cardinals and playing almost completely error-free, but once ASU lost its mojo, the team fell apart. Against Washington, ASU was blown out.
Junior outside hitter Macey Gardner said that it's not completely a bad thing that ASU has these matches left to play.
“It’s just an added benefit to say, ‘Hey, we’re competing against the No. 1, No. 2 teams in the country — not just in the Pac-12 but in the country — and we’re holding our own,'” she said.
Nonetheless, it’s dangerous to assume ASU will win even one of these matches. It’s safer to look at the rest of the conference and look at the matches they have won, including defeating then-No. 9 USC and No. 11 Oregon.
The next two games are must-wins for the Sun Devils. They take on Colorado and Utah, ranked No. 33 and 55 respectively in the RPI poll. Gardner didn’t single these out, though.
“We definitely want to win out on all our home games,” she said. “That would be great, and we don’t want to split anymore.”
Let’s look at the next matches, just one game at a time, the way she and Watson have preached it throughout the season when planning for games.
ASU split the last series against Utah and Colorado, barely losing to the Utes and just skimming by the Buffaloes. The next match is against Stanford. Cal, the lowest Pac-12 team in the RPI poll at 95, follows this and then ASU takes on Oregon. The Sun Devils visit the Washington schools for a rematch and they finish against UCLA (15) and UA (17).
ASU barely defeated Colorado, Oregon and Washington State. They lost to Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, and UA.
It’s not inconceivable that ASU goes 1-9 to end the season. It’s also not inconceivable that ASU finishes 8-2. That’s how tight the Pac-12 is.
Gardner said they don’t want to split any more matches. Going 5-5 to finish the season would put ASU at the 20-win mark and should get them into the tournament. It’s not ideal, but coming into the closing stretch, a win is a win and the team needs to continue bouncing back from defeats.
Remaining schedule:
Utah: No. 55 in RPI
Colorado: No. 33
Stanford: No. 1
Cal: No. 95
Oregon State: No. 35
No. 12 Oregon: No. 7
Washington State: No. 68
No. 2 Washington: No. 3
No. 16 UCLA: No. 15
No. 15 Arizona: No. 17
Reach the reporter at logan.newman@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @Logan_Newsman
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