Putin annexed Crimea back in 2014 after a small-scale engagement. Following this, he set his eyes on Ukraine. Suffice to say, the West wasn’t too happy with Putin’s actions in Ukraine in arming and supporting the separatists there, and slapped a large amount of sanctions on him and those around him.
What effect has all of this had on the situation? It has caused a massive blow to the Russian economy. The sanctions by the West — compounded with the falling price of oil — have sent the Russian national currency, the ruble, into a spiral which threatens to render it worthless. Surprisingly, Putin has actually attempted to let the ruble value fall on purpose, a strategy that has become “one of the few consistent Kremlin policies,” according to the New York Times. “In the face of falling oil prices and Western sanctions over its Ukraine policy, it is a painful, but necessary, step to wean Russians from imports.”
The effects to be felt are more than just economic. According to Alexander J. Motyl of Foreign Affairs, Putin’s actions have placed him very close to the brink of losing control of the government. Motyl states that Putin has three groups he must support with the state’s resources: the military (which he cannot stop supporting for obvious reasons), the people (who are his biggest means of support) and “power-hungry loyalists.”
Stop the flow of resources, and this could result in a coup, a revolution or an implosion of the regime. With the economy in shambles and the state starting to lose money, Putin will have to start cutting back somewhere, leaving one group very unhappy.
It seems that Motyl isn't far off, explaining why Putin has tried to find a way around the stranglehold of Western sanctions: China. The consequences of the Ukrainian conflict have increasingly pushed Russia into the Chinese sphere of influence, especially with the recent $400 billion gas deal Putin just signed with his Chinese counterpart. This is something that the U.S. can ill afford.
While some have talked of “defensively arming” the Ukrainian government, this to me makes no sense. It will lead to an escalation, which is something that nobody wants. Diplomacy, Angela Merkel has pointed out, is key to ending the conflict in Ukraine, which is why world leaders are now in Minsk.
That’s why we need to utilize diplomacy to get Putin get out of this mess. The idea should not come as a surprise. In fact, it seems NATO and the EU started the conflict in the first place by trying to pull Ukraine into its sphere of influence (something they promised not to do after the Cold War), which is something that Putin will not tolerate.
Why can’t we just escalate militarily until Putin backs down? Putin won’t back down, no matter how many weapons we pour into Ukraine. Stephen Walt of Foreign Policy explains that Putin is motivated not by power and greed, but by a desire to secure his influence in a region that has historically been Russian. Quoting Robert Jervis, Walt shows that the conflict here needs to be seen through the lens of a “spiral model” (in which a state’s actions are primarily motivated by fear or insecurity) rather than a “deterrence model” (which is used in the face of a relentless aggressor). If Putin had the assurance that Ukraine will not be threatened or incorporated into NATO, he would most likely back down according to Walt.
John Mearsheimer suggests that this should be accomplished by making Ukraine a buffer zone between NATO/EU influence and Russian influence. However, this helps neither the Ukrainians nor the two sides of the conflict. A partition plan may be more in line with what is needed, since it would deal with the problem of the separatists while also providing an avenue to send aid to Ukraine.
Dealing with Russia may seem like dealing with the devil, but NATO and the EU started the conflict in the first place by trying to pull Ukraine into their sphere of influence (something they promised not to do after the Cold War), which is something Putin will not tolerate.
Reach the columnist at jbrunne2@asu.edu or follow @MrAmbassador4 on Twitter.
Editor’s note: The opinions presented in this column are the author’s and do not imply any endorsement from The State Press or its editors.
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