With Super Tuesday crowning John Kerry frontrunner, Democratic political strategists feel overly confident that their party can reign supreme come the 2004 presidential election. What they failed to account for is that their success relies on 10 things. If any one of these factors becomes reality, Kerry and the Democratic Party are finished.
10. Bush gets caught in a sex scandal: If the "Rock the Vote" crowd gets wind of this, Dems are in for trouble. Flying on an F-16, landing on an aircraft carrier and having sex? Kerry isn't that cool.
9. Al Gore takes a prominent role supporting Kerry: Gore -- who has flip-flopped on a host of different issues, lost his home state in the 2000 election and cursed Howard Dean with his support -- could screw up a cup of coffee.
8. California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger saves the day: If Arnie forgets who he is, travels to Mars, saves the rover and finds a mineral valuable enough to pay for the entire project, California will fall to the Republicans.
7. Donald Rumsfeld somehow acquires the ability to keep quiet: This is another serious problem for Democrats. Every time Rumsfeld opens his mouth, the United States loses an ally, and somebody decides it's about time to remove the American-flag decal from his car. Dems should look into spiking his coffee with NoDoz. Keep him yapping.
6. Somebody successfully convinces the public that the Patriot-Act-wielding federal government is just too big and stupid to adequately snoop on even the smallest percentage of the population: This, believe or not, should be very important to Democratic strategists. Try "They know what you do on the Internet."
5. Ted Kennedy goes on a bender and pulls a Thomas O'Brien: As one of Bush's most vocal critics, if he becomes a Saturday Night Live skit one more time, Kerry's boat is sunk.
4. Iraq becomes peaceful: Barring divine intervention, this is not likely. But, if for some reason, Iraq's warring factions stop bombing each other on major religious holidays and graciously accept "American Idol" and "The Simple Life," watch out.
3. Gay marriages really get out of hand: This is a deeply dividing issue that many Democrats are choosing to ignore. If TV networks capture enough Village People costumes in line for marriage licenses, the Democrats can kiss their senior-citizen and Vietnam-vet constituency goodbye.
2. The capture of Osama bin Laden: Soldiers just might be forming a noose around the 17,000-foot mountainous regions of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. A capture in the near future is possible. The results could be catastrophic for Kerry. This would not only ease legitimate fears but it also may cause Bush to relax, form longer sentences and reintroduce his daughters.
1. Bush announces former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani as his running mate: Named Time magazine's 2001 Man of the Year for his outstanding performance in the chaos of Sept. 11, Rudy was the man. Inspired by his hero Winston Churchill, he told New York and the nation that "tomorrow New York is going to be here." And they listened. And he was right. Extra credit for finding time for Yankees home games. If Rudy's on the ticket, New York goes to the GOP, and the Yanks win the Series. It's the Republican knockout punch.
Christian Palmer is a journalism senior. Reach him at christian.palmer@asu.edu.
