Students looking for jobs when they graduate will have a rough time because of the weakened economy, and experts predict there is no relief in sight.
With the United States heading toward a recession and national job growth on a steady downfall, students who graduate this year may have a tough time finding work, said Lee McPheters, professor of economics and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W. P. Carey School of Business.
"Most businesses are unlikely to be expanding at the same pace as in past years," McPheters said. "Starting salaries will not rise by much over last year, there will be fewer interviews and students may have to work harder to find employment after graduation."
Arizona led the nation in the rate of employment growth in 2006, but job opportunities slowed in 2007, McPheters said.
And the outlook for 2008 is even weaker, he added.
This year, although the housing market didn't quite outgrow the job market in Arizona, the housing price bubble burst — which also burst the amount of jobs and construction in the Valley, said Dawn McLaren, research economist at the Carey School and editor of the Blue Chip Job Growth Update.
"A lot of jobs were here because there was a lot of construction," McLaren said. "Now, the housing market, along with related industries, just isn't there anymore."
The housing market has traditionally played a major role in the state's income and employment, with Arizona having a reputation for population booms and growths in construction, McLaren said.
The U.S. economy increased 0.9 percent in non-agricultural jobs and 1.5 percent in the service-providing sector of non-agricultural jobs in December 2007 compared to December 2006, according to the Blue Chip Job Growth Update.
However, the producing sector of non-agricultural jobs decreased by 1.8 percent in December 2007 compared to December 2006, according to the report.
The Blue Chip Job Growth Update looks at jobs in various sectors and shows how they have performed over time by states and by metro area, McLaren said.
Although the economy and job market are slumping, the U.S. has not experienced an official recession since 2001, McPheters said.
But those slumping numbers, whether defined as an official recession, will negatively affect students, McPheters said.
"The next six months are going to be difficult times," he said. "Unemployment will probably increase above 5 percent, maybe even higher."
Reach the reporter at ryan.calhoun@asu.edu.
