Arizona ranks 49th in the nation in nonfarm job growth, and it is unlikely that the U.S. economy will see a boost this year, according to an ASU professor and September economic forecasts.
In spite of a tough job market, college graduates may have an edge in labor markets even in May 2009, when the economy is likely to be weak, said Lee McPheters, a professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business.
“I think that young people that are coming out with the latest skills… have an advantage in the labor market,” he said.
Medicinal biochemistry junior Chris Hernandez said he knows a lot of people who are suffering from the job market.
Hernandez is planning to serve in the U.S. Navy for about four years after he graduates in 2010.
“I’m hoping by the time I get out things will be better,” he said.
McPheters said later graduates might find themselves entering the workforce while the economy is in an upswing.
Late 2009 and 2010 look more optimistic for signs of economic improvement throughout the country and Arizona, he said.
Arizona has recently been one of the top five states for job creation but is currently in second-to-last place, in front of Rhode Island, McPheters said.
In July, Arizona had lost 1.6 percent of the state’s nonfarming jobs since last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Rhode Island lost almost 3 percent. Wyoming was the No. 1 state for job improvement, with an increase of more than 2 percent in the state’s nonfarming jobs.
In spite of population growth, Arizona has lost about 40,000 jobs since last July, most of which were construction-related, McPheters said.
“We [are suffering] more than other states because the housing market was so expansive here,” he said. “[The housing bubble] was a cycle that really kind of overshot and is now going through an adjustment process.”
According to the September edition of the Arizona Blue Chip Economic Forecast, a monthly publication by the Carey School, job growth in the state is expected to stagnate over the next few months.
McPheters, the editor of the publication, said that the slumping housing market drags down many other areas of the state’s economy.
Stores that sell furniture or specialize in home improvement are likely to see declines in revenue, he said. In addition, construction jobs such as welding and other trades have seen a drop in demand.
“On top of that, you’ve got the consumer looking at high gas prices,” he said. “Consumer confidence is very weak. Consumers are simply not buying cars, not buying appliances — simply not spending like they did a year ago.”
Chris Moore, a physical education freshman who came to ASU from Palm Springs, Calif., said he has noticed more of a difficulty in finding work recently.
“During the summer, it was really hard to get a job,” he said. Moore currently works on campus as an assistant for the disabled.
Moore, who would like to coach at a high school when he graduates, said he thinks the job outlook will get better by 2012, when he graduates. McPheters also said economic improvement is on the horizon.
“Certainly by about 2010 the economy ought to be in recovery mode,” he said.
Reach the reporter at matt.culbertson@asu.edu.
