Sen. John McCain will carry his home state.
Or at least that’s what we’re hearing. McCain has a 21-point lead in the latest Rasmussen poll, 59-38, and has Arizona cordoned off as “Safely Republican” on just about every reputable media outlet’s electoral map estimate. Also, given that the campaign trail in this state has gone about as cold as an Alaskan winter, it feels like a safe bet we’ll be glowing red come Election Day.
But if that is indeed the case, or even if Sen. Barack Obama pulls off a Grand Canyon-sized surprise on Nov. 4, it won’t matter a whole lot. We mean, sure, it will matter — as the highest of civic duties, voting always matters — but the foregone conclusion that our measly 10 electoral votes won’t be a game changer is a fair one. We might not excel in math, but we know our 10 pales in significance to Ohio’s 20 or Florida’s 27.
However, even though the way Arizona votes for president in two weeks stands to have little impact on the national race, the way the national race plays out stands to impact Arizona in a big way.
Regardless of which candidate wins the keys to the White House next month, the political landscape of Arizona will change.
If Obama wins, we could lose our governor. The common speculation amongst the news media from The Washington Post to The Arizona Republic and from Fox News — hey, we’ll play the speculation game, too — to The State Press have tossed Gov. Janet Napolitano’s name out as a leading candidate for a cabinet post in an Obama administration.
Of course, if Napolitano happened to get an offer she couldn’t refuse (such as attorney general) and had to resign her executive post at the State Capitol, the fallout would hit our state’s political hierarchy hard. In the event of our Democratic governor resigning, the succession line would next hit Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican. Seeing as how the GOP currently holds a majority in both wings of the Arizona Legislature, taking the Democrats’ current veto power away would bring forth a frightening time for Arizona Dems.
On the other hand, if McCain wins, we will be down one senator. The state’s procedure for replacing the seat requires the governor to authorize a special election for the spot. In the meantime, Napolitano would be free to name an interim senator — provided that person is a Republican.
What this means, we presume, is that the governor will choose either a moderate Republican with a weak statewide profile, or a disliked (and therefore unelectable) Republican, in hopes that the advantage will go to the Democrat in the special election.
One other plausible scenario could set off a chain reaction beneficial to Democrats: Napolitano could select Brewer to fill the interim seat and run for Senate herself when both her term and the new senator’s term end in 2010. Napolitano could then resign her seat as governor to campaign for Senate with the knowledge that, with Brewer out of the way, the person in line for governor is the next elected, not appointed, person on the line of succession — Attorney General Terry Goddard, a Democrat. Adding to the GOP’s misery, Goddard would then be positioned perfectly for the gubernatorial election.
In other words, when you comment on the madness that is Election Day, keep one thing in mind: There’s plenty more to come.
