Pigs themselves may soon stop many Americans from bringing home the bacon.
The swine flu epidemic has received a multitude of coverage over the previous weeks, but surprisingly few know more about it than “it exists” and “it’s bad.”
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Swine Influenza [swine flu] is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza viruses that causes regular outbreaks in pigs.” Though often mistaken for the common cold (because of similarities of symptoms), influenza is a more severe illness that can cause pneumonia, which can be fatal, particularly in young children and the elderly.
As experienced in the avian flu pandemic of 2004-2007, influenza has proved capable of mutating into a form that allows it to pass from human to human. The strain responsible for the current crisis is believed to have undergone such a mutation.
So far, only a couple dozen Americans have been confirmed infected with the swine influenza, but numbers are expected to rise within the coming days.
President Barack Obama spoke briefly of the outbreak on Monday. “This is, obviously, a cause for concern and requires a heightened state of alert,” he said, “but it’s not a cause for alarm.”
Officials have yet to determine whether the swine flu poses any threat, but if the virus is determined to be as dangerous as some experts fear, it could prove disastrous for millions of American investors restlessly awaiting a market turnaround.
BusinessWeek chief economist Michael Mandel stated his concern on Monday, comparing the outbreak to China’s severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic of 2003. “In the short run we could see an enormous economic hit, and we don’t know what that’s going to mean,” Mandel said. “The only experience that we have recently is in China in 2003. … What happened then was there were big controls put on travels in China and flying from the U.S. to Asia,” devastating China’s tourism industry.
History has already begun to repeat itself; European Union Health Commissioner Androulla Vassiliou advised Europeans on Monday to postpone travel to the U.S. or Mexico “unless it is very urgent for them.”
The airline industry has felt the immediate sting of this news — United Airlines’ stock on Monday dropped a massive 14.33 percent, and can be expected to plummet further as additional cases of swine flu develop.
In 2003, China’s stock took a massive hit because of the SARS outbreak, but recovered reasonably quickly. “The difference between the two situations,” Mandel said, “is that the Chinese economy was booming at that point, whereas the U.S. and global economies right now are already in recession.”
While speculators have held high hopes in recent weeks for a return to economic stability, international measures such as travel warnings and food bans could add additional cracks to an already fragile market.
Only time will tell whether the swine flu virus will live up to its hype.
In every epidemic from SARS to the West Nile virus, speculators have feared apocalyptic consequences and come up short. It is likely we’ll see swine flu get worse before it gets better, but it’s nothing I’ll be losing sleep over.
Reach Hal at hscohen@asu.edu.
