Occasionally, there is a political race that poses a larger choice for a party than who represents a state in Washington.
It increasingly appears like the 2010 race for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat may be one of them.
Florida’s governor, Charlie Crist, is the favorite of the mainstream for former Republican Sen. Mel Martinez’s seat. But he is being challenged in the Republican primary by a young candidate, former House Speaker Marco Rubio, who offers Floridians an interesting choice.
The Rubio-Crist race draws some of its intrigue from the classic establishment versus insurgent dynamic. There may not be a clearer ideological division between Republican candidates anywhere in the country. Crist embraced President Obama’s stimulus bill, while Rubio opposed it. Rubio, as speaker of the Florida House, helped to defeat Crist’s expensive, Schwarzenegger-style energy mandates. Rubio was also a supporter of a tax reform effort that Crist opposed. On all of these issues, Rubio could fairly be labeled the conservative in the race to Crist’s moderate.
But it is not only ideology that separates the two men.
This race is beginning to feel like a bellwether of a rising new political generation. Like in last fall’s presidential race, the age gap between the candidates feels even larger than it is. Crist is 43, and Rubio is 38, but it feels increasingly like Crist is the past, and Rubio is the future.
Rubio may also represent a new Republican Party, one that looks more like the nation. He is young, charismatic, of Cuban descent and fluent in Spanish. For a party that has had its share of racial missteps, Rubio’s ascent is the best kind of publicity.
He is also a lawyer with a reputation as thoughtful and pragmatic, in stark contrast to the populist anger displayed by much of modern conservatism.
And for those impressed by glamour in their political families, he married a former Miami Dolphins cheerleader.
But Rubio’s qualifications are not the only reason Republicans are taking him seriously.
Crist has acquired a reputation as something of an old-style politician, and was immediately endorsed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee in what columnist George Will called “an unforced error.”
Crist also appointed a former employee to fill the Senate seat between Martinez’s resignation and next year’s election, prompting allegations of placeholding and cronyism.
Rarely is a political race so clearly a choice between an antiquated system of favors, seniority and privilege, and a fresh face, untainted by politics-as-usual and free from bluster and baggage.
“If every voter in the state,” goes the classic political lament, “just saw my candidate, he’d win for sure.”
Rarely is the adage as true as it is here. Time is on Rubio’s side. He presents better than Crist, and has the more compelling story. If Rubio’s name recognition ever matches Crist’s, it’s game over. And if Rubio can raise the money to be a viable alternative to Crist (and his $1 million take last quarter indicates he can), the NRSC may realize that their dollars are better spent elsewhere.
Republican challengers across the country should take a look at Rubio’s campaign and message. And in a political year that doesn’t seem to look particularly promising for the establishment of either party, maybe incumbents should start worrying.
This election, the real winners may be the newcomers.
Reach Will at wmunsil@asu.edu.
