Due to underwhelming progress, the War in Afghanistan now has a chance to do what nobody wanted it to: turn 13.
Earlier this month, cabinet and military officials set up a timeline for U.S. and NATO troops to begin leaving Afghanistan in 2014. This new goal is a big change from President Obama’s vision of a 2011 withdrawal that he outlined last December.
How have we gotten to this point? Here’s a quick recap for those of you who were nine when the U.S. first invaded Afghanistan. The Taliban, a fundamentalist Islamic movement, had control over the Afghan government and most of the country before the Sept. 11 attacks. The U.S. denounced the regime due, in part, to the Taliban’s willingness to harbor extremist groups.
The most notorious of these groups was al-Qaeda, a radical Islamist movement headed by Osama bin Laden. The loosely organized faction was, and is, dedicated to the destruction of the U.S. due to its presence in holy lands and alliance with Israel. The Taliban provided a safe haven for al Qaeda to plan and carry out the Sept. 11 attacks that killed nearly 3,000 people.
America was quick to strike after the Sept. 11 attacks, invading Afghanistan in early October 2001 and removing the Taliban from power within three months. It is believed that bin Laden and other al-Qaeda fighters escaped into neighboring Pakistan during the invasion. The character of the war quickly changed from an outright conflict, to a challenging battle with Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgents. These insurgents use guerrilla tactics and recruitment of alienated Afghanis to fight against coalition forces.
And that brings us to today. As of August, about 130,000 NATO troops are involved in counter-insurgency fighting. With the new timeline announced, these troops could be fighting for another four years.
It’s a number, much like the deaths on Sept. 11, that sanitizes a terrible truth. It wasn’t 3,000 people who died during the terrorist attacks, it was one person who died 3,000 times. It won’t be 13 years in Afghanistan, it will be one day lived 4,748 times.
It is one day that we are used to taking for granted. One day that could have been filled with work and fun and loved ones. One day that is impossible to ever get back.
The 2014 withdrawal date isn’t set in stone. Obama and military leaders both agree that progress in the training of Afghan forces is the key factor determining when we can leave. This progress has been unimpressive. The Afghan army has been plagued with corruption, cowardice and a 90 percent illiteracy rate, reported by National Public Radio. The Afghan government faces similar problems. It is difficult to persuade many politicians to turn away from the $2.7 billion per year drug trade, which is over half of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product.
All of these issues led Gen. Stanley McChrystal, former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, to say in a 2009 classified report that he believed it would take 500,000 troops and five years to end the fighting. In a war that’s lasted as long as this one, these figures do not paint a hopeful picture.
It’s a picture, however, that we have to accept. The war in Afghanistan to put down an insurgency of only thousands is beginning to spiral out of control. Frustration is rising, but not because it’s four more years we’ll be losing, but because it will be one day lost over and over again.
Send prolonged, confusing messages to Blake at brhiggin@asu.edu
