Despite the fact that we're over a year out from the next election, one of the most intriguing issues in national politics continues to be which candidate will emerge victorious from the Republican primary process.
The last time I wrote on the topic, I predicted that Mike Huckabee would receive the party's nomination. I thought he would make the decision to walk away from his lucrative media deals, a prediction that clearly proved to be false.
In light of the recent developments in the field of candidates, I figured it would be worthwhile to see where we're at and cast my vote for the GOP's “Most Likely to Succeed.”
First, although many potential candidates are vying for support of social conservatives, it's worth remembering that with an economy like this, people are going to care about a candidate's position on jobs and the economy more than abortion and gay marriage.
One of the most recent developments that continues to loom is the resigning of many key staffers on the Newt Gingrich campaign. According to ABC News, many were tired of the man's unflinching focus on his media ventures in film and print, leading one staffer to e-mail the rest saying, “We didn’t sign up to be hucksters for products for sale."
While I never considered him to be a serious contender for the nomination, I think it's safe to say that this incident further damages the chances he had to make a viable run.
I don't think Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann have a very strong chance of running either, the former because of her lucrative media presence and the latter because, well, I don't think she's a candidate that will have a very easy time playing nice with the GOP establishment. While her alignment with the Tea Party has certainly won her a fair share of supporters, it'll make for tough sailing once it come time to kiss up to the party elite.
Besides, the two of them focus on “cultural issues” and vague platitudes regarding freedom and liberty more than an economic recovery, a tactical move that would start to backfire as they moved closer towards the general election.
There's always Ron Paul, but he has the same problem as Michelle Bachmann — a tough shot at getting the support of the Republican establishment. Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum have their problems with name recognition. Of course, this isn't as severe for the latter, who has his unique Google problem to deal with. (Google his last name and you'll know what I mean. And be warned, it's NSFW.)
In all honesty, the two potential candidates I see having the best shot are Mitt Romney and Herman Cain. Of course, the two both have their share of obstacles. Romney doesn't have the strongest social conservative credentials while Cain suffers from a dearth of name recognition. However, these two seem to be doing well in polling despite those issues.
In a recent Fox News poll, Romney garnered support from 23 percent of those polled, a full 10 percent ahead of the second place candidate. And while support for Cain was only at 7 percent, this represents another entry in his continual rise in support.
What's more, a Pew Research Center poll from last month shows that while only 44 percent of respondents knew who Herman Cain was, 39 percent of those familiar with him said there was a good chance they would vote for him — far and away the strongest result in that category when compared with the other candidates.
In the end, Romney is the best shot the GOP has at defeating Obama. While Cain is riding a wave of support from social conservatives, Romney's focus on jobs and the economy trumps that. In this economic climate, jobs take precedence over all else, and Romney is acutely aware of this fact.
Reach the columnist at tjgreene@asu.edu
