The amount of political theater occurring in regards to raising the debt ceiling is quite remarkable. The nation is set to reach the limit on its debt Aug. 2, giving lawmakers a little under a month to hammer out a deal.
Most officials and economists agree that the consequences will be dire if the debt ceiling is not raised. Concerns abound over how the nation defaulting on its debt will affect global markets, with worries being expressed of a return to a recession rivaling the depth of the disaster in 2008.
The fact that an American debt default has never occurred only adds to the trepidation surrounding the issue. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote for The New York Times, “nobody knows what a U.S. default would do to the world financial system, which is built on the presumption that U.S. government debt is the ultimate safe asset.”
What's more, hitting the debt ceiling would have implications beyond market uncertainty. As Krugman continues, “failure to raise the debt limit would also force the U.S. government to make drastic, immediate spending cuts, on a scale that would dwarf the austerity currently being imposed on Greece.”
While the GOP may argue otherwise, this would be disastrous in such a fragile economic state. Whether these potential cuts affect Social Security and Medicare or assistance to the poor, this outcome would effectively quash any progress made toward full economic recovery.
For their part, Republicans seem awfully willing to play political football with the issue of the debt limit. Despite Democrats' numerous concessions, like slashing spending in numerous programs, GOP lawmakers continue to demand complete compliance with their policy wishes.
Unfortunately, this manifests itself in Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) walking out of budget talks the moment tax increases are mentioned. The point of compromise is that both sides give up something that the other side wants. So far, Democrats are the only ones that have been doing the giving.
Faced with this legislative gridlock, many are looking to President Barack Obama to offer some sort of leadership on the issue. One recent idea involves Obama single-handedly raising the debt ceiling without the approval of Congress.
According to Talking Points Memo, some are argue the 14th Amendment bars a default on the national debt. The clause states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law ... shall not be questioned,” which prompts some to suggest that a default would be unconstitutional, and presidential action would be appropriate.
As well-meaning as this suggestion may be, I'm incredibly wary of this idea. This could set a questionable precedent, potentially allowing future presidents to vault past Congress to affect change they see fit to prevent a violation of the Constitution. And as we all know, there's no shortage of interpretations of the Constitution.
In the end, I don't think either party in Congress is foolish enough to allow a default on the national debt. If the past is any prologue, the Democrats will cave into the Republicans' demands yet again, preventing the damages from a debt default while continuing the Democratic Party's impressive streak of utterly failing at legislative negotiations.
Reach the columnist at tjgreene@asu.edu
