President Barack Obama’s position is precarious. He carries 40 percent approval ratings, according to the most recent weekly Gallup polls.
He is the face of the economy, and this, for him, has meant pain. The triumph of the Osama bin Laden operation was quelled by what seems to be a never-ending parade of bad economic news.
For Obama, the presidency must now feel like an impossible job. Too many forces conspire against success, from a process-obsessed media, to an angry and bitter opposition, to an intractable Congress — the presidency seems less a prize than a punishment.
Obama can lose if the economy doesn’t recover, doesn’t show signs of recovering and doesn’t look enough like it might recover that Obama’s campaign and the media can weave a believable story about recovery. This is possible, but unlikely.
The president can lose if the Republicans raise more money than he does. This is also unlikely.
President Obama can lose if he becomes, out of nowhere, plagued with scandal. This is made less likely by the GOP’s tin ear for what scandalizes the average voter.
The parade of imagined offenses committed by Obama is long, and most of them dissipated nearly as soon as they appeared to the anonymous comment sections of various blogs.
But there are still factors that remain in his favor.
Incumbents win. Presidents with no primary challenger win. The better fundraiser wins. Critically, parties that nominate the wrong person lose.
There is a full GOP field. But at times, it doesn’t seem like anyone in the GOP presidential primary is running for president of the United States.
Yes, some contenders are clearly running against Barack Obama. The contenders are vociferous in their critiques of his work habits, vacation timing, rhetoric, and occasionally his policy.
Being less unpopular than Obama, to these contenders, certainly seems possible.
And some contenders are running to be leader of the Tea Party, or to be the clarion voice against spending, or foreign wars, or health care, or the gold standard. This race has plenty of candidates with a cause.
No one, though, seems fully invested in actually being president. It’s not silly season anymore — no one is talking about Donald Trump — but it’s not quite serious yet either.
We’re still in that strange interlude where candidates can be presidential contenders without having to be presidential.
But this time will pass, sooner than Republicans think, and one of the men and women in the race will have to stand alone on a stage with Obama and sound presidential.
Even if the Republicans nominate the perfect candidate, this could still be a difficult election.
Unless one of these contenders suddenly develops a new gravitas, it is nearly unwinnable.
Reach the columnist at wmunsil@asu.edu.
