There are 7 billion people on Earth this week, and some of us are starting to feel crowded.
Though there are twice as many people now as there was in 1960, the planet hasn’t gotten any bigger. Population growth is starting to resemble other forms of modern human progress — limitless and exponential.
And the truth is, we are running out of space. Not in miles of land to live in — there’s still room for lots of people. But in resources like oil, water and the capacity for meaningful existence, there’s less and less each year to go around. The likely future at this pace is not exciting.
For a hint at how we might fit 7, 8 or 20 billion people, just watch Phoenix grow. Each year neat streets of comfortable family homes reach deeper into the desert, replacing natural space we once viewed as essential.
Urban researchers watch Phoenix grow toward Tucson, and say we’ll soon live in one great big “megapolitan.” Apparently, that’s something of a global trend, as cities reach out to each other in great continental webs of sameness.
So in all likelihood, billions more can still find space to live. Boring, familiar places that look quite a bit like places we live now, paved over all the beauty that was nature.
But last week, there weren’t enough jobs for 6 billion of us. Unemployment is a temporary economic symptom, sure. Yet it’s also revealing of a fundamental truth: We don’t need everybody working to survive.
Once upon a time, food production was a full-time job. But after centuries of innovation, such essentials don’t require that much labor.
Today, we busy ourselves with services, entertainment and accessories. For these industries to grow they need consumers; someday everyone on Earth may live the American way. But just as there’s a limit to how many people can sell corn, we will someday reach a limit on how many can sell smartphones.
As more industries are mechanized, the problem will get worse. People probably don’t have a lot of time left to participate in building things. With the convenience of the Internet, we might not sell those things much longer either.
So what will all 10 billion of our grandkids do, besides camp out on Wall Street? Hopefully some of them will work on ways to keep the earth from dying off, as we burn up all its minerals and fill the air with gas.
And then there’s always war. As historians have argued, nations frequently get warlike when too many young men can’t find jobs or women. Looking back at 2011, the young and unemployed sure seem contentious.
The point is this: We can live with billions more on this one planet. But it’s going to be increasingly boring, and it might get violent too.
So why not try some new locations? Rumor has it they’ve got room on Mars. The space programs we’ve so recently reduced to budget-cutting line items shouldn’t be expendable.
Without them, we may just stagnate here forever, until there’s nothing on this planet worth exporting.
Reach John at john.a.gaylord@asu.edu
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