America stands perilously close to war with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
For decades now, there’s been a steady pattern: Iran antagonizes, then backs down, buying itself more time to build a nuclear bomb.
But President Barack Obama is not playing that game.
He has already acted once this year to protect oil supplies and regional stability in the Middle East. He has invaded sovereign nations many times, killing their citizens or even ours, and U.S. drones strike regularly throughout the region.
There’s a pattern to his actions and by now it’s become very clear: Obama will use military force to protect U.S. interests. When need be, he will do so unilaterally. When helpful, he will do so without warning.
And Iran has had lots of warnings.
The march to war has not been quiet; if Americans are largely unaware of just how close it is, that’s probably because we’ve tuned it out. Iran’s been in the news for so long that the most dramatic stories sound familiar.
But the last few months have not been business as usual.
In October, U.S. officials charged Iran with plotting to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador in Washington D.C.
Last month, Iran shot down — or otherwise captured — one of our most advanced surveillance drones, and showed it off on television to taunt us.
This month, an American citizen was sentenced to death in Iran for the first time in 30 years.
Two days later, an Iranian nuclear scientist was murdered in Tehran.
U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea have generated seemingly unending tension. A U.S. warship rescued 13 Iranians from pirates, just days after an Iranian “hissy-fit” over the presence of these warships. Additionally, shortly after an Iranian official warned U.S. ships not to enter the Persian Gulf, we sent an aircraft carrier and they backed down.
Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program continues to make progress and one group — the Institute for Science and International Security — thinks Iran could have a bomb within six months.
The end result of this month’s flurry of activity: We look good and strong while Iran looks bad and weak.
This is not a stable balance.
A president who wanted to attack Iran would be hard-pressed to find a better time than now. Our hardline sanctions are not working, and even Iran’s staunchest allies, including China, are suggesting they back down. Iran insists on making public declarations, even demonstrations, of its unwillingness to compromise.
In his last campaign, Obama promised to consider using force against Iran. And now, he is campaigning on the same issue.
Congress has been arguing about this war for years. Today, the tide is quickly turning toward a bombing strike, the type of low-risk fight Obama likes. But there are also influential people pushing for regime change.
When we last went to war, a national debate broke out and there were protests all around the globe. This time, only crickets can be heard.
Reach the columnist at john.a.gaylord@asu.edu
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