Dear President Vladimir Putin,
Tactically, you are brilliant, but strategically, your vision seems a bit cloudy at the moment. Explanations are definitely in order here. With your mindful tactics, you have managed the war in Ukraine spectacularly. From the very beginning, you have tried to make sure that none of it could be traced directly back to you. You have used separatists, local Ukrainian militias, Russian secret police and even plain-clothed Russian soldiers to do the dirty work of taking over Ukraine for you, while you have sat back and watched the chaos that has erupted as a result.
You have had a few setbacks, it's true: The biggest one was that airliner from Malaysia (you remember, MH-17?) being shot down by what was most likely one of your rockets, though only you know for sure. Other than this, you have been quite successful in your war effort, evidence being that until recently, the international community has been largely ambivalent in its response to your war and the Ukrainian government has struggled to maintain control.
But what is the bigger picture? Why are you doing this? There's been plenty of speculation. Some people say it’s because you feel like the U.S. broke its promises to Russia that it made during the Cold War regarding NATO expansion. Others say that you want to respect the memory of and imitate the actions of the czars, whose favorite past-time was conquest. Still others reject both of these motivations, and instead focus on the strategic ramifications of holding Ukraine. Perhaps your objectives are a mixture of all three of these motivations, and everyone is right.
But no matter what drives you, Putin, the strategic watchword for you right now is caution. Your escalation of this conflict has only caused more anxiety and reactionary behavior on the part of the international community who take this threat very seriously. You may be only bluffing to get your way, but it will definitely cost you in the long run. The international community, though it has not been coherent in its past responses, will not remain ambivalent for long. Even now, NATO allies are announcing the creation of a “rapid response force” to counter your efforts in Ukraine. The sanctions that were started by President Obama are also starting to have their effect, too.
You may respond that the efforts of the international community mean nothing to you, that you can survive these sanctions and use other means to counter this new response by NATO. However, in trying to seem tough, you may be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire instead. Your reliance on China to ease the pressure of the sanctions could turn out to be strategically disastrous for you as you become more and more dependent on Asian investment and trade.
Finally, what about your people? Don't you have a duty as the president to provide them with sufficient economic prosperity and keep their families serving in the military out of danger? If you continue to escalate this war with comments about using nukes, you may end up causing a lot more damage for your country than you ever imagined — that would be to no one’s benefit.
So here is a suggestion: Start talking peace while you’re still in a relatively strong position both domestically and in Ukraine. In any case, Putin, what is Ukraine to you? Here's what it is: a rational way to fight an irrational war. Your tactics are brilliant, but your strategy makes no sense. What can you hope to gain by starting WWIII? Therefore, it makes the most sense to bargain with the international community. Lay before them your grievances, your problems with their treatment of Russia. Perhaps now that you are strong enough to command attention they'll be willing to listen and respond favorably rather than with sanctions. But you never know unless you try.
Reach the columnist at jbrunne2@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @MrAmbassador4
Editor’s note: The opinions presented in this column are the author’s and do not imply any endorsement from The State Press or its editors.
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