Video by Ben Margiott | Multimedia reporter
No matter who the Sun Devils run out there, he is going to be better than Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan. Both redshirt senior Taylor Kelly -- 100 percent or not -- and redshirt junior Mike Bercovici have proven to be more than game managers, which would be a compliment for Hogan. Stanford's senior quarterback is off to his best start yet, but it still pales in comparison to ASU's two options under center. In six games, Hogan barely has more yards (1,325) and touchdowns (11) than Bercovici (998 and eight) has in two.
There's no question the Sun Devils' backfield is more talented than the Cardinal's. Junior D.J. Foster, redshirt senior Deantre Lewis and freshmen Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard provide a lethal four-pronged attack. Those prongs the last two weeks, however, have been dulled because of Bercovici, who doesn't bring the same threat to run as Kelly, under center. Stanford is talented in its own right, but it's not the type of run game we've become accustomed to from the Cardinal. Senior Remound Wright and junior Barry Sanders Jr. are the Cardinal's go-to backs — and both are very talented, with numbers to boot — but against the best two front-sevens the Cardinal have faced (Notre Dame and Washington), the two running backs have combined for just 117 yards.
Injuries are never something to be celebrated, no matter what side they're on. But ASU does catch a break this week with Stanford senior receiver Devon Cajuste out with an undisclosed injury, suspected to be a concussion. Cajuste is Stanford's second-leading receiver, behind none other than senior Ty Montgomery, who has more than double the receptions of any other Cardinal. With Cajuste out, the receivers are fairly equal, but the tight ends give Stanford a slight edge. Stanford's tight ends — all sophomores —combine for 332 yards on 24 receptions, nearly three times the yardage ASU's tight ends account for (118 on 10 catches). Austin Hooper has been especially impressive, and is the third-leading receiver on the Cardinal.
This is actually closer than you might think. ASU's offensive line is one of the better ones in the conference, and Stanford is on a down-year. But even Stanford on a down-year is better than most teams at their best. The line is anchored at left tackle by junior Andrus Peat, who is expected to go in the first half of the first round of the NFL draft. Joshua Garnett, ranked the No. 2 guard in the 2012 recruiting class, joins him on the left side of the line. Stanford's line averages about 302 pounds and has a median height of 6-foot-5. The Cardinal allow a middle-of-the-road 2.17 sacks per game — a stat that usually reflects more on the QB than offensive line — but they make up for it, ranking near the top of the country in tackles for loss allowed, with just 4.33 per game.
Just like at receiver, Stanford takes a blow here because of injuries. ASU, however, doesn't have the personnel to beat out the Cardinal even with the injury of Aziz Shittu. The junior hadn't put up overly impressive numbers (13 tackles and 1.5 sacks in five games), but he is arguably the Cardinal's most talented defensive lineman. Redshirt senior David Parry has been wreaking havoc in the middle of Stanford's line. He has 16 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss, including two sacks. The Cardinal defensive line has actually been for the most part underwhelming, but that would be a compliment if used to describe the ASU defensive line.
This, and special teams, are Stanford's two biggest edges. While individual performances have been impressive, what really blows you away are the team numbers. These include defensive linemen, but the majority come from linebackers. Tackles for loss: 41 for 216 yards vs. 37 for 147. Sacks: 17 for 155 yards vs. 10 for 72. On paper and using the eye test, Stanford comes out on top here, easily. For the third straight game, it won't be easy for ASU to establish the running game.
Again, while Stanford is talented in the secondary, it's really ASU's deficiencies that give the Cardinal the edge, rather than Stanford's pure talent. The two safeties, redshirt senior Damarious Randall and redshirt junior Jordan Simone, have been ASU's two best defensive players, but they've gotten much of their work picking up the slack for missed assignments from other positions. Two interceptions in five games is not the number coach Todd Graham is looking for there, and only one came from a secondary player — Simone. The corners have struggled to get ahead of the learning curve. Even redshirt junior Lloyd Carrington, who was expected to lead this group, has consistently missed assignments and coverages. Stanford, on the other hand, doesn't have a stellar group on the back end of its defense, but it more than suffices. The safeties, junior Zach Hoffpauir and senior Jordan Richards, are the most dangerous in the secondary, but Stanford's corners could pose problems to ASU receivers not named Jaelen Strong.
Ty Montgomery. Ty Montgomery. Ty Montgomery. The Sun Devils have to contain him not only in the passing game but especially on kick and punt returns. Todd Graham believes he's the best in the country, and I'm not arguing that. Graham worked with sophomore punter Matt Haack extensively over the last two weeks in practice, focusing on getting his hang time consistently around 4.5 seconds. Although, don't be surprised ASU simply decides to kick it away from Montgomery altogether. With the way the Sun Devils' coverage has played so far, that might be their best option.
This should be a close game. Emphasis on should, because most people believed last year's two games would be pretty close, too, and neither even came, well, close. Ultimately, it's going to come down to two things: if ASU can establish the run, even a little bit, and whether ASU can limit the damage done by Montgomery. Hogan isn't going to beat you, but Stanford's run game is good enough that it can sustain drives and hold the ball to complement its defense, which has given up a seemingly impossible 10 points per game. No other Pac-12 team averages less than 20.
Reach the reporter at ewebeck@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter@EvanWebeck
Like State Press Sports on Facebook and follow them on Twitter@statepresssport
