On Nov. 4, Republicans seized the Senate and the governor majority while keeping control of the House of Representatives — a feat that hadn’t been accomplished since 2006. Obviously, it was a huge win for the Republican Party, right?
Not quite. If we look a little closer, we can see that the Democratic Party now has everything to gain in the presidential election coming up in two years. While the Republican Party is celebrating, Democrats will be getting down to business.
Comparing the 2010 Democratic electorate to this one, there has been a marginal increase among women, Latinos and voters in the western U.S. — a fact that is being undermined by the Republican Party domination.
Although a majority of millennial voters ages 18 to 29 supported the Democratic Party, their voter turnout rates plummeted from 19 percent in 2012 to 13 percent this time around. Low voter turnout among this demographic aided the wave of Republican wins.
Considering younger voters are more likely to vote in presidential elections, we can expect voter turnout to be much less of a problem for the Democratic Party in 2016. Not to mention, during the 2010 midterm election, the Republican wave of voters helped the GOP to major victories — but President Barack Obama won the Presidential election in 2012.
With strong potential Presidential candidates like Hillary Clinton representing the Democratic party, who's to say that history won't repeat itself?
Another factor that will determine the outcome of the presidential election in 2016 is the inability of the Republican-controlled Congress to work with Obama. Presumptive Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has either the ability to compromise with the president, or obstruct the Democratic president's agenda, turning him into a "lamer lame duck president."
Back in 1994, when Bill Clinton was president and Newt Gingrich was the Senate Majority Leader, the situation was identical. Despite their differences, Congress and Clinton were able to be productive. Together, they created a fixed budget and settled on welfare reform. Clinton had to deal with a unified Republican Congress and make it work to make himself look good for his re-election in 1996.
However, that is not the case today; with Obama being ineligible to run again, he can be as stubborn as he wants toward the Republican-dominated Congress. McConnell and Obama both seem intent on butting heads and not compromising. It looks like this time around, we will be stuck in a political gridlock for the remainder of Obama's term.
Most midterm voters are also not happy with the way things are now, with just 1 in 5 saying they trust the government to do what is right — a fact of which we should be ashamed. A quarter of voters are also dissatisfied with the GOP's performance as well as Obama's. The American people aren't happy and need a leader who will govern for the people and not for their own political party's agenda.
It seems as though the midterm elections reflected the American people's despair. It may appear that it is anyone's game this upcoming presidential election but, just as the Republican wave came in strong this time around, prepare for a Democratic typhoon in 2016.
Reach the columnist at ambice@asu.edu or follow her on Twitter @alliebice
Editor’s note: The opinions presented in this column are the author’s and do not imply any endorsement from The State Press or its editors.
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