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ASU baseball Fullerton Regional roundtable: How will the Sun Devils fare?

Fabian Ardaya, Stefan Modrich and Justin Toscano discuss ASU's regional odds

AsU V Uof A Team Celebrate
Arizona State baseball team celebrates after a walkoff hit by Senior Jake Peevyhouse in the bottom of the ninth inning against University of Arizona at Phoenix Municipal Stadium Saturday April 11, 2015. The Sun Devils defeated the Wildcats 5-4. (Jacob Stanek/The State Press)

ASU baseball opens its postseason run as the No. 2 seed in the Fullerton Regional, pair up against hosts Cal State Fullerton along with Clemson and Pepperdine.

The Sun Devils have been covered by a few faces at The State Press during the year, all of which had their take on what to look out for this season.

Baseball beat writers Stefan Modrich and Justin Toscano, along with Fabian Ardaya, discussed ASU's odds once they headed to southern California this weekend:

Fabian Ardaya: ASU head coach Tracy Smith echoed his confidence in his team before the regional seedings were announced, guaranteeing that the Sun Devils would win it all on Twitter. Do you like the statement, especially given the platform?

Stefan Modrich: It's not surprising, as much as we know that he's an outspoken and articulate guy, but he had yet to say anything this bold. The timing, of course, with ASU's 7-10 finish to close out the regular season, might have made the statement lose some of its impact.

Justin Toscano: Personally, I don't see any harm in it. It's a bold statement, but I think it's great for the team to hear after a rough month of May. But Tracy Smith wouldn't tweet it for no reason. He obviously believes the Sun Devils can win it all and isn't just tweeting for attention. Throughout the season, he has seemed to perfectly gauge what the team has needed and this is another example. I just see it as a shot of confidence for his team. Whenever something like that is tweeted, people remember it and I think Smith knows people may hold it against him if the team does not live up to expectations this year. Knowing that, he still tweeted it, which bodes well in terms of the confidence he has instilled in his team even after a tough month of May.

FA: I personally love the boldness of the move. It's Tracy Smith's personality to make such a claim, and something that ASU would not have seen under its previous regime. ASU does have the talent to make a deep run if the right pieces fall into piece, but that's a pretty big if. If anything, the target is bigger on ASU's back now.

ASU is facing a pair of familiar faces from previous regionals (Fullerton in 2013, Pepperdine in 2014). Does that familiarity help in a regional, when every single game counts?

JT: I definitely think it plays a small factor, but Tracy Smith has always said that ASU tries to keep its focus on itself, not the opponent. Obviously the team does its fair share of scouting, but as for the regional, I think it's all about ASU's mindset and how it performs, and the entire team would probably say that as well. Familiarity is nice, but at the end of the day, I think ASU just looks to execute and hang its hat on the things that have taken the team to the regional.

SM: It's been marked by experts as one of the toughest routes on the road to Omaha. Fullerton is always tough, Pepperdine has one of the country's best pitching staffs, and Clemson hasn't played in California since 1993. The Sun Devils have drawn Cal State Fullerton six times since 2001, and though the teams change each year, the setting has been relatively similar.

FA: I think, other than familiarity, Fullerton was a great draw for ASU because of location. Up until Monday, many pundits had them making the journey to the east coast. Clemson makes the journey over, but that's nothing to laugh at. Getting revenge against Fullerton and Pepperdine would certainly feel nice for ASU's veterans, but the biggest thing is just trying to use every piece of this draw to their advantage.

Smith has tinkered with the lineup and rotation more than usual in recent weeks, including moving Lilek to Fridays and Kellogg to Saturdays. What move makes the difference this weekend?

SM:  Now you've got essentially what was projected at the beginning of the year, and here we are with Sunday still somewhat of a question mark. Kellogg is most certainly capable of being No. 1, but I think we saw him at his best on Saturdays. No matter what, Brett Lilek will need to find an extra gear for this postseason if ASU wants to avoid going two and out as they did in 2014. With Lilek and Brian Serven at full strength (if you recall, the two were injured during the San Luis Obispo regional last year, which included losses to Pepperdine and No. 4-seeded Sacramento State.) ASU should have a much better shot at advancing.

JT: In my opinion, the big move in the starting rotation makes the biggest difference. Brett Lilek's inconsistency was really the reason for relegating him to Sundays and Smith's move to put him back on Fridays speaks volumes to me — I think it's really a vote of condense for Lilek, regardless of how he has played this season. In the regional, you look to put your best arms out there because every game obviously means so much. I really like that move in the rotation because I think it's smart to put your best guns out for the regional. Also worth noting is that even when he struggled, Smith always said that Lilek's stuff was the best on the team. Great move to put him back on Fridays, which is what was expected prior to the start of the season.

SM: The interesting part at this point is clearly going to be what happens with the bullpen. Eder Erives is expected to be back healthy.

FA: Smith doesn't want the same thing that happened to ASU last season — he can't see his team go two and out without one of his best pitchers even seeing the mound. Moving Lilek to Friday and Kellogg to Saturday instantly puts ASU in prime position to win the first two games of the regional if the run support is there. If need be on a Sunday, Lilek has shown a willingness to come out of the bullpen on short rest if need be. 

I do think one move that will fly under the radar will be Smith's decision to start Jordan Aboites in a seemingly meaningless game against Abilene Christian on the last midweek game of the year. The excellence that Aboites had in that start, in addition to David Graybill's improvement and Eder Erives returning from injury should bolster a bullpen that failed them for much of the latter half of the season.

Given that regionals are typically close and one game can shift a team's entire landscape, pitching is important. Which guy on the mound should ASU be worried about when at the plate?

SM: Unfortunately, I don't think it will be as easy as singling out one guy. Fullerton's staff has an ERA of 2.85, good for 10th best in college baseball.Titans ace Thomas Eshelman tossed a remarkable 114.1 innings and maintained a sparkling ERA of 1.57 individually.

JT: I'm going to go with Clemson's junior lefty and ACC Pitcher of the Year, Matthew Crownover. It's imperative that ASU gets the regional off to a good start, but Crownover will most likely be on the mound for Clemson. He's 10-2 this year with a 1.52 ERA with 99 strikeouts. ASU has faced multiple aces this year like TCU's Preston Morrison and UCLA's James Kaprielian, just to name a couple. Getting off to a good start against Crownover will be key, because if he finds his groove, ASU could find itself in a game where one hit is the difference—if that's the case, the Sun Devils could find themselves as losers of the first game in a heartbeat.

FA: The biggest thing that ASU needs to do against a guy like Cronower or Eshelman is something it hasn't done often this season — get a a pair of early runs against an ace. That puts the starters in a groove, and ASU needs to tack on insurance runs once the bullpen comes in.

SM: That's an interesting point, and raises a question I'm eager to hear you guys answer: We documented the success of this team in close games, but have they lost their way at the plate recently? Or will guys like RJ Ybarra break out of slumps in time to get hot when runs will be at a premium?

FA: The thing is, ASU's offense actually hasn't played poorly as of late. Trever Allen has caught fire, and the Sun Devils put together a few big innings in recent games. The biggest killer, though, is getting those runners on base and not driving them in. That is the change that could make them a championship-caliber team.

SM: Is that not something we've seen them struggle with heavily all season?As you noted, the futility with runners in scoring position could easily be the death of this team in the postseason.

JT: Simply put, RJ Ybarra wasn't what many thought he would be this season and to seems like his inconsistent year has flown somewhat under the radar in terms of where folks tend to pin the woes at the plate. For example,Tracy Smith struggled and wrestled all season to find some production out of the first base spot. Expanding on Fabian's point, Trever Allen stepping up is a great sign not only in terms of offensive production, but it speaks to him showing up as a leader of this team before it heads to regionals.

Earlier in the season, Johnny Sewald beat a pretty vicious slump. In my opinion, he has been solid in the leadoff role from that point on. How big of an impact do you guys think he will have in the regional? He gets on base at a fantastic rate, but we talk about the woes with runners in scoring position. Will he have a huge impact this weekend?

FA: He should. If not on the offensive end, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a couple game-changing plays out in center field.

SM: Without question, he'll find a way to stamp his footprint into a game somehow. He's one of the best center fielders in Pac-12, if not the country. Of course, each time he gets on base will be a pressure situation in the playoffs, but I'd hope to see him given the green light to steal and try to shift momentum that way, and maybe even some hit-and-run action with Woody or Allen.

FA: Looking up and down this roster, there's the potential for a lot of different guys to be the difference in the regional. Who do you think is the guy we're talking about once this weekend is all said and done?

JT: Colby Woodmansee. He's one of the best shortstops in the nation, exemplified by his nominations to the Brooks Wallace Award watch list for the country's best shortstop. I also believe he is the most improved shortstop in the Pac-12 based on production. It appears his walk-off home run to beat Oklahoma State in the season opener foreshadowed his year—excellence. We talked about Johnny Sewald being able to get on base, but ASU needed to string together a few hits to score runs. Woodmansee is the guy who will break open a game with a huge hit and I think he makes a few of those this weekend. Not to mention his defensive ability, as well.

SM: Brian Serven. It's impossible to overstate how valuable he's been as a stout defensive catcher and one of the most consistent hitters in a potent lineup. He and Woodmansee are both sophomores, and it wouldn't surprise me to see either emerge as offensive leaders early in this regional round. Both have delivered clutch, walk-off hits and have the power to find the gaps. If you could award two co-MVPs at the end of the regular season, it would be hard to not make sure at least one of them got to hold that honor.

FA: I'm going with a guy who shouldn't be a surprise, but probably isn't the first guy you think of either — Trever Allen. He's been here before, and there's nobody I'd rather have at the plate in a pressure situation if I'm Tracy Smith, it's Trever Allen. He comes in red-hot, and I expect that to carry over for a big weekend.

SM: *I respectfully disagree, but carry on.*

FA: Well guys, what is your prediction for this weekend's Fullerton Regional?

JT: As discussed in the first question, I love Skip's vote of confidence for his team. It's a great decision to give ASU its best shot at winning the regional by putting the two most talented pitchers on the mound, Lilek and Kellogg. I think the Sun Devils find a way to string together some hits, maybe even some extra-base hits. I'm going with ASU as a winner in a tough Fullerton Regional, but it won't be easy. Fortunately for ASU, it's all too accustomed to playing in tight games.

SM: Without coming off like a broken record, I could absolutely see ASU catching fire and earning a trip to a Super Regional. My skepticism kicks in if ASU isn't able to take care of business in one of its first two games and splits because either Lilek/Kellogg get outpitched or the offense goes dormant. They'd need Seth Martinez to step up in a big way to advance.

FA: I wouldn't be surprised to head back from Fullerton after two games with ASU's season over, but I think the Sun Devils come out of southern California with their tickets punched for a Super Regional.

SM: I feel like it won't do this regional justice if I don't give it a full breakdown: ASU will drop its first game to Clemson, and my #HotTake or bold prediction is that Pepperdine will knock out Fullerton in a brutal pitcher's duel, setting up the Sun Devils for a rematch with the Waves to decide the regional.

JT: And if that's the case, watch out because many people are calling Pepperdine one of the tournament's most dangerous team — d1baseball.com's Kendall Rogers certainly thinks the Waves are going to be a force in the regional.

FA: Pepperdine can be a surprising team, especially given that Fullerton was arguably the weakest No. 1 seed. I think it goes chalk for the first game for each match up, and Kellogg throws a gem in game two to set up ASU well for the regional final.

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