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Opinions: Draft is the only way to win in Iraq


Let me preface this all by saying: the draft isn't coming back.

It's political suicide for whichever party implements it. The difference between supporting a war and actually being drafted is a bit like a ham and egg breakfast; the chicken supports it, but the pig was conscripted. It's terribly easy to vote someone else into fighting a war, and rather more difficult to fight one yourself. Voters don't like being called to arms — not for the Iraq war, anyway.

Secondly, the military has been an all-volunteer force for forty years. The army wants extra hands, but consider the chaos created by throwing in thousands of men who don't want to be there. There would be growing pains, and I'm not sure the military itself is prepared for a draft.

That said: We're not going to win the Iraq war without a draft. We need the numbers; the only strategy to have seen any promise so far is the "surge." I don't believe it's a solution, but General Petraeus and 20,000 extra soldiers have at least temporarily reduced violence in Baghdad.

The surge has not yet accomplished its ultimate goal of achieving political stability in Iraq, but the troops are being recalled anyway; Bush has already withdrawn a brigade (3-5,000 troops), and the current plan seems to be to bring troop levels back down to pre-surge by next summer.

Ostensibly, this is because the security situation is improving and Iraqis are taking the lead in defending their own government. However, I doubt the picture is so rosy; more likely, the drawdown is an exigency of an over-committed military. There are currently 160,000-170,000 troops in Iraq. Soldiers from the Army deploy for 15 months, while Marines go for seven, but more frequently. Of the forces in Iraq, 25 percent are National Guard or reserve units, mobilized for indefinite time periods, in what some have called the "backdoor draft."

One hundred and sixty thousand troops might not seem like much for a military that's 1.5 million strong with 900,000 in the reserves, but consider that the Air Force and the Navy don't have much to contribute to Iraq; they can only support what the ground forces do. The Army and the Marines get the majority of the workload in Iraq, but they also have to station forces in other parts of the world: South Korea, Central Asia, Africa, Japan, Germany, and others. Consider also that not everyone in the military can be deployed at a given time; with the current rotation schedule, the military has two soldiers resting or training at home for every one deployed.

The point of all that math is that we're stretched thin, and we're nearing a tipping point.

A draft, as ominous as the very word sounds, is the most feasible way to remedy the problem; if America needs to fight the war and maintain its commitments elsewhere, it needs more manpower, and it's not going to get many more volunteers with a war on. The draft doesn't need to be unfairly skewed toward the poor as it was in Vietnam; nor does it even need to press people into combat service. The military could fill logistics and services positions with draftees, freeing volunteers for combat. One might even consider an alternative service component, placing pacifist young people in hospitals or nursing homes for a few years. The benefits aren't all military; it isn't hard to imagine that such a draft, cutting across class and racial lines, might bring us together as a society.

But as I said earlier, the draft won't occur unless America acquires an enemy that truly does threaten its national interest; the terrorist threat simply isn't trenchant enough for American society to stand conscription. We're more likely to see politicians find shortcuts around the military's manpower shortage — that means mobilizing guard and reserve units and extending service periods. For better or for worse, America will fight the current war on the cheap.

Seth Pate thinks that Ron Paul probably wouldn't agree with him here, and that makes him sad. Disagree with him at: spate@asu.edu.


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