It's 2011, folks. You know what that means. The media circus that surrounds the presidential campaign trail is already open for business.
While there are some grumblings on the left about a primary challenge to President Barack Obama, the far more interesting topic is which candidate the Republicans will put forward.
It's interesting because the field of potential contenders seems, for lack of a better word, weak, or at least lacking a clear front-runner.
There is a vague cloud of names that hangs over the party. One name will occasionally emerge, testing the waters of viability, but only one candidate has officially announced his candidacy: Fred Karger.
According to The Huffington Post, Karger “comes to the table with some serious bona fides, having served as a consultant for Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.” Also, Karger is gay. Based on the values that right-wing Christian evangelical voters hold, it's pretty unlikely that a gay man will win the presidential nomination for the Republican Party.
Aside from Karger, nobody has committed just yet. For what it's worth, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty recently became another “Republican contender to launch his campaign” according to Politico.
If these two candidates don't appeal to you, don't worry. There are other potential candidates to choose from: Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and business tycoon Donald Trump. The list goes on and on.
Public opinion polling shows potential Republican voters are deeply non-committal as well. According to a recent poll conducted by Pew Research Center, 21 percent of respondents expressed support for Romney, 20 percent backed Huckabee, 13 percent sided with Palin, and 11 percent threw their weight behind Gingrich. Once again, there are no clear front-runners.
Another question: How do these potential candidates stack up against Obama? A February Newsweek/Daily Beast poll pitted Obama against various possible competitors. In three of the instances, Obama held an edge: 51 to 40 percent against Palin, 49 to 47 percent against Romney, and 43 to 41 percent against Trump. The fourth pairing, Obama against Huckabee, resulted in a dead heat at 46 percent each.
I suppose I should end this column by fulfilling my role as a columnist. Who do I think will wind up winning the Republican nomination?
For as much name recognition as she has, I don't think Palin will pan out. Her polling isn't looking the strongest against Obama, and she remains an extraordinarily divisive figure for non-Republicans.
The two most likely candidates in my book are Huckabee and Romney. They have among the strongest name recognition and seem to do relatively well against Obama in polling.
Between the two, I would lean toward picking Huckabee as the likeliest to emerge victorious in the primary. Romney has two considerable stumbling blocks to overcome: his Mormon faith and the health care law that was passed while he was governor of Massachusetts.
Voters may be reluctant to vote for a Mormon, much as former President John F. Kennedy's Catholicism became an issue in his bid for president.
What's worse, the similarities between “Romneycare” and “Obamacare” are more than skin-deep, which could open Romney up to some devastating attacks from primary competitors. And we all know how much Republicans love to launch attacks about health care.
Contact Tanner at tjgreene@asu.edu
