Tracking the plague, SARS and H1N1 all come down to one thing: math.
Dirk Brockmann, a researcher and professor in the Department of Engineering Sciences and Applied Mathematics at Northwestern University, told ASU students Friday how he created an algorithm to predict the spread of disease using data collected from WheresGeorge.com, a website that tracks the movement of money.
Brockmann’s lecture on the Tempe campus was part of ASU’s celebration of Mathematics Awareness Month. Brockmann explained that it was only by accident he stumbled upon WheresGeorge.com as a tool for analyzing the way humans move and spread disease.
After explaining to a friend what he was researching, his friend mentioned the website that tracks the movement of dollar bills around the U.S.
At first, Brockmann said he was doubtful that WheresGeorge.com would be an accurate predictor of human mobility, but he was surprised that the mathematics behind it was very simplistic.
Brockmann told students his study attempts to learn how people move by the way money circulates. Since disease is passed through humans, this will in turn predict how disease travels.
It is hard to do that, though, because today disease can spread quickly because of the ease of mobility, Brockmann said.
“Nowadays there is not only local traffic, but you can go in the matter of a day from any place to any other place,” Brockmann said. “And certainly this sort of network has an impact on how disease spreads out.”
The website allowed Brockmann to simplify the data into an algorithm that can predict where a disease will spread next based on the popularity of airports, rather than the distance between them, Brockmann said.
Wayne Raskind, director of the School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, said Brockmann was chosen as the keynote speaker for Math Awareness Month for his knowledge of complex systems. This year’s theme is the mathematics of complex systems.
Traditional mathematics cannot explain all the complexities of the world, Raskind said. There are many variables to consider, some of which are not purely mathematical. They can also be sociological and biological. People who study complex systems attempt to analyze these variables.
Raskind said Brockmann explained his use of complex systems in a way that was easy for the general public to understand.
“I thought the lecture was a very good mixture of the mathematical concepts, the graphics and the animation,” Raskind said. “I thought that he did a very good job explaining what he was interested in, and I thought it was very accessible to a wide range of people.”
Mathematics Awareness Month at ASU is in its third year, but it has been a national event since 1999, according to the Mathematics Awareness Month website.
“Math Awareness Month is important because it informs people about the beauty and the utility and the importance of mathematics,” Raskind said.
Hank Eskin, founder of WheresGeorge.com, said Brockmann’s use of what many consider a fun and pointless website in complex research is part of what makes him an excellent candidate for this year’s keynote speaker.
Eskin also said Brockmann is able to explain complex topics so that they are easy to understand.
“On one level it looks kind of simplistic but it is actually very rich,” Eskin said. “He has found a lot of interesting trends and analyses on something that looks simple.”
Martin Baricevic, a computational mathematical sciences and computer sciences senior, said people may misunderstand math and he would like to see interest generated.
“The algebraic techniques, that’s not what mathematics is about,” Baricevic said. “It’s a lot more about the applications and the understanding, and I don’t think people see that or get that in their average math class.”
Brockmann agreed that more attention needs to be focused on the importance of mathematics.
“We have neglected how fascinating it can be, and this is why [Mathematics Awareness Month] is important, because mathematics is important,” Brockmann said.
Reach the reporter at cmbravo@asu.edu
