CORVALLIS, Ore. — For the past week, ASU football was unanimously regarded as a top-10 team in the polls. No. 7 in the AP and coaches polls and No. 6 in the poll that mattered, the College Football Playoff committee's.
The Sun Devils were getting respect, and they almost certainly had a spot in the College Football Playoff had the won out.
But with a possible national championship — what coach Todd Graham has since day one said is his ultimate goal — on the line, the Sun Devils came out as flat as they have all season.
"It just felt like they wanted it more than we did," redshirt senior safety Damarious Randall said.
It sure looked like it. But how does a team still trying to get bowl eligible want to win more than a team that was one of the last contenders for a national title? For now, at least, that question is unanswered. Regardless, a national championship is no longer on the line. So what's in store for the Sun Devils in the final two games of the regular season and beyond?
Redshirt senior quarterback Taylor Kelly runs with the ball in a game against Oregon State in Corvallis on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2014. ASU lost against OSU 35-28. (Photo Courtesy of Justin Quinn - Daily Barometer)An outside shot at the playoff?
This is nearly impossible. It certainly is without the help of other teams. Just to win the Pac-12 South, ASU needs to win out and UCLA needs to lose one of its final two games. The Bruins hold the tiebreaker over ASU because of the 62-27 drubbing they gave the Sun Devils in Tempe. ASU has to beat Washington State and UA for this to even be possible, unless the Bruins lose out. Left on UCLA's schedule are home games against USC and Stanford. Neither is an automatic win or loss, but the Bruins should be favored in each game.
If ASU reaches the Pac-12 title game, it will face Oregon. The Ducks could be the No. 1 team in the country come Tuesday, when the College Football Playoff committee releases its next rankings. It could put the committee in tough spot if ASU reaches the title game and beats Oregon. Do they put a two-loss Pac-12 champion into the playoff over undefeated FSU? Over Mississippi State, which should have one loss but no SEC title? Over Ohio State, the likely Big 10 champion? What about Baylor and TCU in the Big 12? Simply, ASU needs chaos to reign supreme in the final two weeks of the season, and even then, it's highly unlikely it will have a chance to play for a national title.
Upper-tier, non-playoff bowl
Losing to Oregon State complicates things. The common belief was that ASU could win out but would lose to top-four Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Now that ASU has a much worse loss on its resume, getting into a bowl such as the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta or Peach seems unlikely. The Orange Bowl will only have an at-large spot open if FSU makes the playoff. If the Sun Devils win out, they'll be 10-2 with a compelling resume to put them in a higher-tier bowl.
Right now, the playoff looks to be FSU, Oregon, Alabama and either TCU or Baylor. That leaves Ohio State, whichever Big 12 that doesn't make the playoff, UCLA, Ole Miss, Auburn, among others in contention for these bowls. ASU's resume likely won't stack up to those of the SEC due to wins over ranked teams. UCLA has the advantage head-to-head but will have three losses if it loses in the Pac-12 title game. The Big 12 non-playoff team should only have one loss, giving it an inherent advantage.
There are eight slots in this category, making it a reasonable landing spot for the Sun Devils. If they're in the top-12, one of these bowls would be the most likely but not a foregone conclusion.
Worst-case scenario
Assuming ASU doesn't completely implode and lose out, it shouldn't fall further than the first or second selection from the Pac-12 after the major bowls and playoff are filled. The Alamo gets first pick, and if Oregon is in the playoff, ASU still could be the next-best pick from the Pac-12. Ironically, whichever team doesn't win the Pac-12 South will be in better position, as it will end the season with two losses, rather than three if the South champion loses to Oregon.
The furthest ASU could fall is the newly renamed Foster Farms Bowl, also known as the San Francisco Bowl or the (formerly Kraft) Fight Hunger Bowl. After where ASU was positioned late in the season, that would undoubtedly be considered a failure by the fancies and likely the coaching staff, which continues to preach its national championship goals.
Most likely: At-large bid to Orange, Cotton, Fiesta or Peach
