The Pac-10 may only receive two invites to the NCAA tournament this season, and for now, only two teams appear worthy.
1. Washington (13-4, 5-1 Pac-10)
The Huskies slipped up a bit this past week, falling by two points on the road against Stanford. But UW didn’t dwell on the loss long, bouncing back to rout California on Sunday.
There is no doubt that the Huskies are the deepest team in the conference and they hold close to a 10-points-per-game advantage over the next highest scoring team. It is hard to see UW losing a conference game at home, where they are almost impossible to beat.
UW’s lone weakness could be off the court distractions. Coach Lorenzo Romar confirmed that one of his players is being investigated by Seattle police in an accusation of sexual assault by a 16-year-old female.
How the distraction and possible suspension will hurt the Huskies’ chances at the regular season crown is unknown.
2. Arizona (15-3, 4-1)
The Wildcats are back in the rankings for the first time in three years after defeating ASU in Tucson for the first time since 2007. UA has a chance to move into first place on Thursday in Seattle against UW.
In a league that likely will only get two bids into the NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats are in good position to be dancing again in March. The stats are in UA’s favor.
They are second in the conference in both scoring offense and defense, shoot a high percentage from the floor, and are the best free throw shooting team in the league.
For the Wildcats to be successful and win the conference championship, they are going to need somebody other than Derrick Williams to step up and help ease the Pac-10 Player of the Year candidate’s scoring load.
3. UCLA (11-6, 3-2)
The Bruins won two road games this past week and were the only team in the conference to go 2-0. While the two road wins are important, neither will impress the selection committee.
For the Bruins to return to the NCAA Tournament, they will face the same problem other bubble teams in the conference face: The Pac-10 just doesn’t have many resume-building wins.
The Bruins do play a big non-conference game in early February against St. John’s, and with a win against SJU and possible upsets later over UA and UW, UCLA could do enough to get in. Limiting turnovers and keeping freshman center Josh Smith on the floor will be critical.
4. Washington St. (13-5, 3-3)
On Dec. 23rd, WSU was sitting pretty. Fresh off five straight wins, including one over then No. 15 Baylor, the Cougars entered Pac-10 play with a full head of steam.
Then came three straight losses to Butler, UCLA and USC that slowed the momentum. WSU rebounded to sweep the Oregon schools, but slipped up again last weekend, losing in overtime in Berkeley.
WSU hosts ASU on Thursday, but the key stretch comes following their contest with the Sun Devils. On Saturday, WSU will host UA and the following Sunday they will host UW.
The Cougars play the two ranked teams in the conference twice still and may need to split those four games to get into the tournament. It won’t be easy with point guard Reggie Moore suspended indefinitely for a marijuana charge.
5. Stanford (10-6, 3-2)
While Stanford has struggled at times to score this season, the Cardinal can defend anybody in the league. That was evident last Thursday when Stanford upset UW. The game ended with Stanford 30 points ahead of UW’s season average.
For the Cardinal to compete for a spot at the top of the conference, they must continue to play lockdown defense. Stanford does not give many assists and steals, preventing numerous open looks and easy baskets in transition.
Stanford coach Johnny Dawkins has done a tremendous job with a team that had very little expectations. Coach Dawkins should have his team in contention for an NIT berth.
6. USC (10-8, 2-3)
While UCLA came out of Oregon 2-0, USC went 0-2. It was a disappointing trip for a team that was playing good basketball, but USC still can get back on track.
Unlike a lot of the other Pac-10 schools, the Trojans have a couple out of conference wins that keep them on the bubble, but the Trojans need to play better basketball to prevent that bubble from bursting.
USC typically wins games on the defensive side of the floor but struggled defensively last weekend. USC coach Kevin O’Neill doesn’t play a deep rotation, something that may hurt USC down the stretch.
7. Oregon State (8-9, 3-3)
After a non-conference slate that included losses to Seattle University, Texas Southern, Utah Valley, Montana and George Washington, OSU has recovered to pick up a few big wins in Pac-10 play. Getting redshirt freshman guard Roberto Nelson eligible and back on the court was key.
While the Beavers’ offense is much improved, the defense has struggled and is last in the Pac-10 in points allowed.
Many thought OSU would be locked into the cellar after its early struggles, but the Beavers are competitive and certainly won’t finish in last place.
8. California (9-8, 2-3)
The young Golden Bears suffered a blow when freshman starter Gary Franklin left the program earlier in January, but fellow freshman guard Allan Crabbe has stepped up in his place. Crabbe led Cal to wins over ASU and Washington St.
Cal had been close in every conference game before getting blown out at home by UW on Sunday. Turnovers have hurt the team on offense.
9. ASU (9-8, 1-4)
Pac-10 play has been a struggle for the Sun Devils, who are dead last in the conference by averaging only 63 points per game.
Injuries and illnesses have struck a team that has struggled to integrate seven newcomers with three seniors.
ASU needs to get healthy and get more of a contribution from senior guard/forward Rihards Kuksiks to keep any postseason hopes alive.
10. Oregon (8-10, 1-5)
The Ducks capped a momentous night in program history by opening brand-new Matthew Knight Arena with a win over USC to snap a six-game losing streak.
While the new arena in Eugene is fancy and flamboyant, the product on the unusual floor is not.
The Ducks will struggle and likely find themselves near or at the bottom of the league at the end of the season.
Reach the reporter at andrew.gruman@asu.edu.
