Here’s a freakin’ genius way to pick playoff teams: Pick the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.
From the remaining seven in the top 10 in payroll, randomly select two teams. If you happen to pick the New York Mets, re-do it until you don’t pick the Mets. Now you’ve got a reasonably good chance at looking like a freakin’ genius.
Since Major League Baseball expanded to eight playoff spots when it realigned divisions in 1995, close to 60 percent of all playoff teams have been in the top 10 in payroll.
Sure, 10 is an arbitrary cut-off, and many of the 128-playoff teams since 1995 have been between 11th and 15th in total payroll.
However, markets that make huge television money just don’t lose. The New York Yankees have missed the playoffs once since 1995, Boston Red Sox twice since 2002 and the Philadelphia Phillies have made the last four.
Let’s consider the top-10 (the top third) the “big-market teams.” On average, five of the eight playoff teams are from “big markets.”
The top 10 projected team payrolls in 2011, according to ESPN.com, in order: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. Take out the Mets and assume five of those teams are in.
So, what three “medium” to “small” market teams are good enough to make the playoffs so long as they stay healthy and get the requisite career years from scrubs (see: Andres Torres)?
The Minnesota Twins “medium” and Oakland A’s “small,” have combined to make 10 post-seasons since 1995 (neither have changed payroll distinction in that time).
There’s plenty of good reason to suspect that one of them will do it again in 2011 because Billy Beane has put together a good, young rotation (surprise) and he should get at least one year with Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill before money calls.
The Twins are a pretty safe bet with well-played (Joe) Mauer, Justin Morneau and reborn Delmon Young in the middle of the lineup, plus new Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka, a homeless man’s Ichiro Suzuki who’ll provide speed at the top. It’s enough offense to prop up a questionable rotation vulnerable to injury.
Despite losing the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, it’s quite possible the Texas Rangers got better from last season with the addition of Adrian Beltre.
That may not, however, mean more than 90 wins or a post-season berth simply due to all that went right in 2010. But with its young, projected-to-improve talent there is still reason to suspect that despite regression from Tempe “rager” Josh Hamilton and others, the Rangers will hover around the top of the standings in September.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a quasi-interesting team, losing Carl Crawford to Boston and signing old Boston idiots Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. They won’t make the playoffs ahead of the East’s Yankees or Sox, however.
In the National League, the four best non-large market teams are the Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies, Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.
The Brewers have underachieved since their C.C. Sabathia-led run in 2008. With the additions of Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke, and with Prince Fielder in a contract-year, the Brewers will win the N.L. Central ahead of the Reds who had their magical season last year. The Reds will win close to 90 games and miss the post-season.
The Braves are a hot pick with an excellent rotation and young talent. Thought they lack defensively a bit and the bullpen is injury-prone, they’ll contend through September.
The Colorado Rockies will win the World Series. They will steam-roll through the regular season, the division series, and the Phillies in the NLCS by smacking baseballs and throwing 100 miles an hour. After Carlos Gonzales and Troy Tulowitzki are named co-MVPs, they’ll avenge their 2007 World Series embarrassment by sweeping the Red Sox.
Freakin’ genius.
Reach the columnist at nick.ruland@asu.edu
