Republicans nominate the next in line. They fight it, certainly, and they flirt with anyone who talks mean about the Democrats, but in the end, they nominate the next in line.
Mitt Romney, clearly the guy next in line, is doing nothing to lose the Republican nomination. In some years, that would be a veiled dig, a backhanded compliment. But in this election year, not losing is more or less winning.
In fact, if Mitt Romney had scripted the election cycle so far, it’s difficult to see what he would have changed.
Consider: Big names and conservative crushes have passed on the race. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisc. — all with the potential to relegate Romney to the second tier. Yet they are all happier leaving the field to him.
Romney’s been left on a stage with a field that highlights his particular strengths. He is a competent debater, while his main rival sounds like a caricature of former President George W. Bush.
He projects stability, while his rivals radiate uncertainty. Even candidates with initial resonance — Rick Perry for instance — quickly prove themselves unready for prime time.
Even Romney’s glaring flaws — his lack of a track record of conservative accomplishment, his Massachusetts healthcare reforms, his continuing inability to feign human feeling — stand out less in this field. He faces no darling of the right, no proven reformer, no charismatic newcomer.
And Romney, for all his faults, has several selling points that will continue to solidify his case for the nomination. First, he has a significant electability edge. Romney is, at the very least, a plausible president. None of his competitors really are.
Second, Romney is at least tolerable to all parts of his party. He is not, as he wants to be, the candidate to unite the disparate threads of modern conservatism.
But he won’t send voters running into the arms of President Barack Obama, and that, at least, can be counted a victory.
Romney’s main obstacles are not his competitors, but the primary schedule. Iowa, again, will not be kind.
But his chances in New Hampshire seem stronger, if only because New Hampshire’s adopted son, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., will not be on the ballot. After the early states, when organization and fundraising takes over, Romney will be at a decided advantage.
The end of this primary season is largely a foregone conclusion. Romney can spend the next months running a general election campaign.
He can zero in on the faults of Obama, while avoiding the excesses of a close primary. He is, it seems, the Republicans’ best hope, and Obama’s biggest threat.
He’s not going to make Republicans fall in love. But that’s the way they like it.
Reach Will at wmunsil@asu.edu.
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