The State Press caught up with Shane Dale, the author of "Territorial: The History of the Duel in the Desert," and talked with him about the Territorial Cup game on Saturday. He gave his keys to the game and even picked a winner.
The State Press: ASU just clinched the Pac-12 South. UA just had the huge upset against Oregon. For which school does this game mean more?
Shane Dale: For bowl purposes, obviously it's got to be the Devils. ASU's only Pac-12 loss was in a beating at Stanford. I'm sure ASU doesn't want to go back there for the Pac-12 Championship game, and I'm sure the Wildcats are licking their chops at the opportunity to (send them back). UA certainly has a chance to go to a bigger bowl game after its upset over the Ducks, but at most, that will probably mean the Las Vegas Bowl — not exactly what RichRod came to Tucson for, at least not in the long run.
SP: ASU coach Todd Graham said last year's game has no effect on this year's. Do you agree with that?
SD: From what I know about Coach Graham, I respect him a ton both on a personal and professional level — but I think he's 100 percent wrong there. In so many of the player interviews I did for the book (including Brandon Magee and Cameron Marshall), they would talk about getting payback for last year's loss as a motivational factor. The Duel in the Desert is a season within itself, and memories of each game run deep. You better believe UA's seniors are telling the newcomers such as Nate Phillips and Scooby Wright about returning the favor for the Wildcats' home loss last season.
SP: UA coach Rich Rodriguez said he doesn't care that this game could clinch home-field for ASU in the Pac-12 title game. Do you believe him or do you think he wants to play spoiler?
SD: He may not care about it on that level, because I'm sure that what ASU does or doesn't do outside of the UA game doesn't matter much to him. I think he takes the same approach to this game as he does to each one: He simply wants his team to outclass its opponent on that particular day. With that said, I'm sure he also understands that winning this game is important for in-state recruiting purposes. Losing your first two games to ASU isn't a good way to get that going.
SP: The last four winners of this game have been the road team. Is there such thing as home-field advantage in this rivalry?
SD: Nope. The road team has also won 13 of the last 21 games. Most of the players and coaches I talked to for the book said it doesn't matter. In fact, a small percentage, including Jake Plummer, said he loved playing on the road. He said it helped him to focus more and avoid some of the distractions of playing in front of your home crowd.
SP: Is there any stopping UA junior running back Ka'Deem Carey?
SD: He can be contained, and if ASU can hold Bishop Sankey to under 30 yards, anything is possible. A lot of ASU fans say, "Well, Ka'Deem is going to get his." Sure, but does "getting his" mean 100 yards or 200 yards? There's probably a 7-10-point difference in those yardage totals. If ASU can hold him to closer to 100 yards — which that defense is absolutely capable of doing — you have to like the Devils' chances.
SP: What needs to happen for each school to win on Saturday? Let's start with ASU.
SD: ASU's secondary has to take away the passing game. B.J. Denker may not strike fear in the hearts of ASU fans, but he's been pretty dang good the second half of the season — went 19 for 22 against Oregon — and has only thrown a few interceptions all year. I'm interested to see who gets the assignment of covering freshman wideout Nate Phillips, who is quickly emerging as a star. I'm guessing Irabor will be on him. If the Devils can lock down Phillips, it's going to be a long night for B.J.
SP: And for UA?
SD: The one thing the Wildcats absolutely have to do is put great pressure on (redshirt junior quarterback) Taylor Kelly. As fantastic as Kelly has been most of this year, including last week at UCLA, he has thrown 10 interceptions this season, so he is prone to making mistakes from time to time. The Wildcats have to find a way to flush him out of the pocket. If Kelly beats them with his feet or with great throws on the run, so be it. But UA must, at the very least, give Taylor Kelly the opportunity to make mistakes.
SP: Every year it seems someone steps up and plays the game of his life. Who do you think it will be this year?
SD: For ASU, if (senior running back) Marion Grice is out, you have to expect big things from (freshman running back) D.J. Foster. I think he's been surprisingly underused this season, and if given the opportunity, I think he can easily put up 150 combined yards against UA. On the Wildcat side, I'll go with Phillips. In the absence of last year's leading receiver, Austin Hill, he's emerged as Denker's top target. I can see him getting close to 100 yards and at least one touchdown on Saturday if he can get some separation from the secondary.
SP: Finally, who wins and what's the final score?
SD: I don't typically pick football games very well, but I was nearly dead on with my pick of last year's game. I had ASU winning 41-38. Not bad.
This year's game should be higher-scoring, which is probably why it won't be. Things typically don't make much sense in this particular game. I think the Wildcats give the Devils the fight of their lives, but ASU narrowly snaps that home-team losing streak and wins 23-20 on a last-second (freshman kicker) Zane Gonzalez field goal.
Reach the reporter at justin.emerson@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @J15Emerson
