Arizona quarterback B.J. Denker (7) makes a throw against Cal in the second half at Memorial Coliseum in Berkeley, California, on Saturday, November 2, 2013. Arizona won, 33-28. (Ray Chavez/Bay Area News Group/MCT)Here’s a crazy thought: the winner of the Territorial Cup may be more likely to land an access bowl by NOT winning the Pac-12 South.
By winning the division, someone would be subject to playing No. 2 Oregon in the conference championship game, where losing the game historically results in a rankings tumble. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oregon a 66.3 percent chance of winning the conference, and that’s low-balling it.
Based on this season’s progression, the access bowls will likely consist of the teams the committee ranks 1-10, the Group of Five champion and the ACC replacement.
Without winning the division, ASU obviously can’t win the conference. That’s one of Todd Graham’s goals. Another is to play in the Rose Bowl. Because this year the Rose Bowl is a semifinal game, ASU would have to be ranked in the Top 4 to make it there.
ASU already has two inexplicable results on its schedule (35 point loss to UCLA and one to 5-6 Oregon State). Barring complete chaos in the last two weeks of the season, Pac-12 champion ASU would be in an access bowl, but not the playoff, the same destination as a 10-2 ASU team.
This year, there’s a new bowl selection process with six access bowls which rotate hosting semifinal games. The Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl are considered contract bowls, while the Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl and Chick Fil A/Peach Bowl are not. Because the semifinals are at the Sugar and Rose, only the Orange (ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame) needs specific conference affiliation this season.
Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly, left, runs past UCLA defender Ellis McCarthy for a touchdown in the first quarter at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif., on Saturday, Nov. 23, 2013. Arizona State won, 38-33. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times/MCT)“The Fiesta, Cotton and Peach Bowls will host displaced conference champions and the top-ranked champion from a non-contract conference, according to the college football playoff ‘s website. “The highest-ranked available teams will fill any other berths. The Selection Committee will make the pairings,”
Think of the methodology another way: teams ranked 1-12 will get an access bowl unless a Power Five conference champion, the highest ranked Group of Five champion, or the highest-ranked replacement team for a bowl is outside the Top 12.
I’d project two “stolen” bids from teams outside the Top 12, which means No. 13 ASU would need to ascend into the Top 10 to qualify for an access bowl.
No. 23 Boise State is currently the top non-contract team, and the Broncos won’t vault into the Top 12 within two weeks.
If No. 3 Florida State wins out, it will make the playoff and the Orange will need an ACC replacement. No. 16 Georgia Tech is the second-highest ranked ACC school and the Yellow Jackets could easily lose the last two games (vs. No. 9 Georgia, ACC championship game).
The only other conference specific contract in access bowls this season is the ACC’s opponent in the Orange, featuring the highest-ranked Big Ten/SEC team (or Notre Dame) remaining after the semifinals participants.
If ASU beats No. 11 Arizona, they’ll obviously pass the Wildcats. No. 7 Baylor and No. 12 Kansas State play in two weeks. The loser should drop below the Territorial Cup winner in the scenario where UCLA plays in the Pac-12 championship game.
That still leaves one more spot for the Sun Devils to climb. There are a few scenarios where they would move up: No. 9 Georgia loses to Georgia Tech or to No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game; No. 8 UCLA loses to No. 2 Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
How far either would fall is speculative, but the committee dropped Utah six spots after losing to the Ducks earlier this month. The last four SEC title game losers (all against Top 3 competition) fell an average of 3.5 spots in the AP and Coaches’ poll.
In theory, teams shouldn’t drop after losing to championship-caliber opponents in conference championship games. History has shown otherwise.
Reach the columnist at jmjanss1@asu.edu or follow him on Twitter @jjanssen11
Like State Press Sports on Facebook or follow them on Twitter @statepresssport
